Nepal Under Pressure: How Geopolitics and Internal Weakness Invite Foreign Intervention

Nepal’s geopolitical positioning along with some internal vulnerabilities has made foreign interventions and pressures a multidimensional process. The growing rivalry of interests among various global players, particularly China, India, and Western countries like America, has inducted Nepal in to the list of areas with high geopolitical importance. In order to satisfy their individual national interests, foreign nations tend to ignore Nepal’s sovereignty and nationals’ interests in a very subtle manner. Historically considered to be the place that functions as a “Buffer State” between two giant nations, Nepal’s geopolitical importance in this regard presents a situation in which this country is compelled to endure constant pressures. Foreign interest in Nepal has created a distinct effect on this country’s internal politics and social structure. Political instability in Nepal along with an improper governance framework and overdependence on foreign aid has compelled this country to work like a playground for power nations.

Foreign countries tend to erode Nepal’s sovereignty through pressure exercised on four main fronts: political, economic, security, and socio-cultural. On the political front, the interference is quite visible regarding government formations or transitions.

Whether it is forming a government with an ideology or an alliance they support, or maintaining or removing a particular leader, “micro-management” through coordination among foreign embassies, special ambassadors, or recurrent lobbying among leaders, amongst others, has become common. Therefore, when there is an obvious crucial influence or interference by foreign countries with respect to Nepal’s internal power architectures, then there is an element of interference. In addition, there is forceful diplomatic as well as economic influence to enact or delay an important piece of legislation – for example, an issue pertaining to citizenship or federalism.

Another critical dimension which may affect Nepal’s sustainable development in the long term is an economic and development intervention. Whether through China’s BRI or other projects such as those proposed under the US MCC, major infrastructure projects are often linked to foreign investment or grants with attempts at direct control over project selection, bidding processes, and operations. “Conditionality’s” attached to aid are clearly designed to ensure that Nepal policies and priorities further the donor’s agenda. Often, these conditions are drafted to supersede Nepal’s internal economic regulations, a clear undermining of “national ownership.” Thus, in the guise of development, foreign control is established over key sectors of the economy, leading the country toward a path of economic dependency.

Apart from these, intervention within the sectors of security and socio-culture poses a threat to the basic existence of society and security. In terms of security, external actors aim to have continued influence and avail themselves of defense sector policies and military readiness either through military training, arms, or help. For socio-culture, enormous funds are allocated via International Non-Governmental Organizations (INGOs) for the promotion of particular societal agendas, including religious, ethnic, or regional matters, to sway public opinion. The process enables the forging of divergence and polarization within the boundaries of the Nepali society. To a degree, processes involving the promotion of religious and cultural change undermine the original existence of the identity and unity of society within Nepal.

The Foreign Pressure and Intervention Process normally occurs in a sequence, which includes a number of steps, including “establishing access.” The first step includes creating a web of personal relations and trust established at a higher level, including key government politicians, civil, as well as security authorities, and important civil society agents. The lobbying is based on embassies as well as clandestine discussions conducted by special agents, where it tries to observe the mindset, shortcomings, as well as interests of key decision-makers that can subsequently make use of them as a tactic in the future stages. After creating access, “proposing assistance” as well as “policy conditionality’s” take place on steps two and three, respectively. This refers to large economic, technical, as well as security assistance packages, such as BRI, MCC, among others, that seem important for Nepal but are covered by strategies to shape the policy structure based on conditions attached to them. Nepal would, for example, need to change certain laws as well as develop a certain security policy in order to get the assistance, providing sovereign control over decision-making in foreign policy to foreigners, respectively.

If there is any ambivalence on the part of Nepal to agree with these conditions, then the fourth stage involves “diplomatic and economic pressure.” This can be hostile when there is an airing of dissatisfaction at high-level forums, withholding economic aid, limits on visas, or threats to deny any trade concessions (“coercive diplomacy”). In stage five, there is an approach to “internal political manipulation to alter the government.” There is lobbying among political leaders through carrots or sticks, as well as an indirect promotion to dissolve ruling coalitions or present no-confidence motions. Misinformation dissemination occurs through various means such as press or NGOs/INGOs to instill more discontent among the populace. If conditions are fully met for them, then stage six is “Implementation and control.” There is micro-management imposed by directing foreigners or consultants to implement projects.

As the seventh and final resort, the great powers use “security and proxy military actions.” Without gaining the desired result through pressure, the great powers form or sponsor groups that become insurgent or military groups for the initiation of a “proxy war” that leads to the creation of conflict and instability in the country that is weaker. Another milestone is the “cyber warfare.” An attack on critical computer systems to inflict great damage on the country is implemented to make the government surrender. In all the stages of help, the great powers keep being in the country through funding.

The main reason for intervention in the Nepalese state is the need for these nations to secure their national security, economic and geo-strategic gains and advancement. For the Chinese and Indian nations, the major stakes are those of security and geopolitical balance and strategies. It is the utmost importance of Nepal for Indian security and access to water resources and as a “balance weight against the Chinese influence,” and the parallel concern of the Chinese state for access to the “Tibet card” and the management of anti-Chinese activities in the Nepalese state, and “to have the Nepalese state remaining inside their sphere of influence,” giving birth to the “Famous Descriptions of the Nepalese State as the Yama between two Boulder.” In terms of the access to the Nepalese markets and gaining profits through the investment of natural resources such as Hydropower of that state.

“The interests of the United States of America and other Western countries are dominated by their attempts to achieve geopolitical and ideological hegemony. America has identified Nepal as an integral part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy because it aims at mitigating China’s rising influence in the region. Such schemes as MCC are designed as an effort to ensure their strategic footprint in the region in the name of economic assistance. Secondly, Nepal is pushed by Western states towards an ideology of democracy, human rights, inclusiveness, and adherence to the supremacy of the law. These are lofty ideals in theory but are in practice used as an excuse to ensure some form of imperialism in terms of access into the political outfits of Nepal because every foreign force begins with the pursuit of advancing its own national interests rather than the interests of Nepal itself.”

The submission of Nepal to foreign influences can be attributed to a complex mix of internal vulnerabilities and its geopolitical position. First is its geopolitical sensitivity; being sandwiched between two up-and-coming powers in international politics, China and India, it is a “geopolitical playground.” If it doesn’t retain balance in international politics among these two and the Western world, it finds itself coerced by another in favor of the other it has previously accommodated.

Internal weakness and political instability is the second major reason. Frequent change in government, lack of unity among political parties on national issues and the tendency of leaders to seek foreign “shelter” to gain or retain power provide a platform for intervention. Foreign powers understand personal interests, factional feuds, and hunger for power among Nepali leaders and exploit their vulnerabilities. When leadership lacks nationalist conviction and self-confidence, then there come opportunities for the external powers to interfere. The result of such “lack of nationalist leadership” is weakened determination on safeguarding national interests, hence compromising on minor gains or for political survival.

Finally, the weak economy of Nepal brings in the compulsion to tolerate foreign pressure. Nepal requires extensive foreign aid (in the form of grant aid and loans) for its economic development. As a result of its economic dependence, Nepal is compelled to comply with severe terms of conditionality, even if it is harmful to its national interest. Until Nepal emerges as a strong economy with economic independence, it lacks the courage to declare “no.” In fact, the weakness of the government institutions, administration, as well as the research institutions, makes it easy for intervention. Helplessness in the monitoring and managing of foreign projects due to weak institutional capabilities makes it difficult for Nepal to cope with foreign designs or resist them, thus forced to suffer from foreign control.