Nepal to experience below-average rainfall during 2026 monsoon season

Kathmandu – This year’s monsoon is projected to bring below-average rainfall. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecasted that during the upcoming monsoon season, spanning four months, the country will experience less rainfall than average, while maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than average.

Meteorologist Sudarshan Humagain from the department stated that the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has projected below-average rainfall for most parts of South Asia during the 2026 monsoon period, and accordingly, the department has predicted below-average rainfall for Nepal.

According to Humagain, most areas, except the northern parts of Karnali, Bagmati, and Koshi provinces, will see below-average rainfall in the upcoming monsoon. He mentioned that the northwestern region of Nepal is expected to receive average rainfall.

Humagain noted that there is a 55 to 65 percent probability of below-average rainfall in the southern parts of Karnali Province, most areas of Lumbini Province, the eastern parts of Madhesh Province, and the southern parts of Koshi Province.

In the majority of Sudurpaschim Province, the western parts of Madhesh Province, and the central parts of Koshi Province, there is a 45 to 55 percent chance of below-average rainfall. The northern parts of Karnali Province and the northern parts of Koshi Province have a 35 to 45 percent probability of receiving average rainfall.

The department has also projected that minimum temperatures across the country will be higher than average. There is a 55 to 65 percent chance of above-average minimum temperatures in the northern parts of Sudurpaschim Province, Karnali Province, and Bagmati Province, as well as the eastern parts of Madhesh Province and the southern parts of Koshi Province.

Citing the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), meteorologist Humagain mentioned that extreme climate events have been intensifying in South Asia in recent years, with increased risks of abnormal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, intense heat, and floods and landslides.

Although the average date for the onset of the monsoon in Nepal is June 13, it can arrive a few days earlier or later due to the influence of the western low-pressure system and local winds.