Modi’s third term: What it means for India and Nepal

Last week, India spoke collectively giving a fresh mandate to the Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance to rule.

Narendra Modi became India’s second Prime Minister to be sworn in for the third consecutive term, albeit with a diluted mandate. What will it mean for India, and its neighborhood, is an issue that will remain debated, and watched throughout.

Is BJP’s loss of seats 63 compared to previous Lok Sabha, directly proportional to the loss of image of the leader? Modi seems to have read the message properly and positively. He retained almost all the prominent ministers in the cabinet except those who lost the poll. He perhaps wants continuity of his style of governance with the tried team.

But, unlike during the past two elections—2014 and 2919 –the political opposition to Modi is stronger, homogenous and principled. That’s not all. Even the Hindu institutions do not look too happy with him.

Rashtrya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) Chief Mohan Bhagwat said on Monday that a ‘true sevak ‘ has to be devoid of ‘ahankar’ (ego or pride). The choice of word is significant, although the RSS Chief did not explain the context. Last year, Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi called Modi an ‘Ahankari’ (Egotist) when her brother Rahul was disqualified as a member of Parliament and ousted from the official residence he was given. A fortnight ago, BJP Chief J P Nanda,  now a Union Minister as well, literally undermined the RSS by saying the BJP has now grown too big and the Party was capable of moving forward independently, politically and during elections as well.

There will certainly be many efforts now to bring Modi or the BJP and RSS together so that the crusade for ‘Hindutva’ that RSS has authored all along, with BJP executing –like abrogation of article 370 and constructions of the Ram temple in Ayodhya—does not suffer. The current hiatus between the two will also trigger an intra-family crisis affecting the relationship between the RSS and over 100 affiliates including BJP, or Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Akhil Bharatiya Vidhyarthi Parishad,  Banbasi Kalyan and  Sewa Bharati. The Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh –the RSS chapters outside India –will also suffer. The first loyalty of these outfits is always towards the RSS than the BJP, and the party will suffer if cut off from its umbilical chord.

RSS Chief’s comment also links it with other Hindu groups and institutions including Shankaracharyas and Dharmacharyas who have not forgiven Modi for opening incomplete Ram temple at Ayodhya in January.

All this, with a strong opposition in parliament, will make Modi more accountable to Parliament, and less aggressive towards opposition. Modi’s BJP  has only around 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, far too short of the half –way mark of 272, and his dependence on politically suave allies like the Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar and Telugu Desam led by Chandra Babu Naidu,  for his survival will be a tight rope walk for the current government.

Modi, like in the past two swearing in, invited heads of the states or the governments, but significantly Pakistan was dropped this time. That indicates the nearly four-decade old South Asia Regional body is nowhere near revival, and that Indo-Pak relations stand little chances of normalization. How much of the continued tension between the two nuclear countries in the region will hamper potential of collective prosperity and peace of the region, is a natural concern for all.

Modi will need the RSS support even to contain the possible dissents within the party from being aired publicly for the loss and reverses in nine states that the BJP did not anticipate. In brief, challenges for Modi have grown too big and wide and only a democratic and accommodative approach within, and towards the opposition will be the way.

Modi, like in the past two swearing in, invited heads of the states or the governments, but significantly Pakistan was dropped this time. That indicates the nearly four-decade old South Asia Regional body is nowhere near revival, and that Indo-Pak relations stand little chances of normalization. How much of the continued tension between the two nuclear countries in the region will hamper potential of collective prosperity and peace of the region, is a natural concern for all.

Nepal is politically instable, and its leaders –ruling or main opposition—serve external interest more than that of the country and its people, to be in power. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was in Delhi as Modi’s guest for a day on Sunday, and apparently he spoke to Modi seeking resolution of border issues and timely execution of projects bilaterally finalized. But how honest and efficient is Prachanda to put Pressure on India in the light of current slackness or indifference exhibited by the South?

K P Oli was deeply suspicious of Prachanda on the eve of his Delhi visit. Oli, the patron and partner of the current ruling alliance, reiterated that Madi in Chitwan, and not Ayodhya, is the birth place of Lord Ram. Delhi certainly would not feel comfortable with this, and those knowing and analyzing objectively how Prachanda and his Maoist movement ended with India’s blessing, and how they were brought to the centre stage of Nepali power and politics know Prachanda ultimately has to go by what the south wants even in Nepal’s domestic politics. But given the fact that India’s decisive intervention during 2005-06 has become counterproductive, and Nepal’s most leaders including UML, Maoists and Nepali Congress are perceived as corrupt by the Nepalis and the much dignified option India is left with, will be to endorse what Nepalis are certain to do.

The decisive mood, when spills on the streets, will amount to rejection of the radical outcomes of the collaboration between India and the Maoists, the force that Atal Behari Vajpayee had declared terrorists.