Elections alone can not prove a healer for Nepal

   With all the Political Parties including the K P Sharma Oli led Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist submitting  their list of candidates for 110 seats under the proportional representation category to the Election Commission, initial doubts about the polls taking place on March do not appear that valid now. This at least confirms that like all other major parties , the UML and its chief Oli are committed to face the electorate.

But is it just a tactical politics to dispel public perception that the UML  is running away from the poll given Oli’s ignominious exit from the government leadership, as  a sequel to Gen Z protest against corruption in high places and the government suppression that took a toll of 76 youths in September ?

From his initial stand of challenging Sushila Karki’s legitimacy as PM and dissolution of the House of Representatives , Oli seems have come around a full circle in favour of the March 5 poll. Along with submitting the list of PR candidates to the Election Commissions by the deadline, he has also proposed seat sharing with the Nepali congress leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, as  equal partner. This proposal , in itself , is an admission that both parties have lost their confidence about poll prospects.

Rastriya Swatantra Party’s psychological expansion and its Chief Rabi Lamichhane’s declaration that Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah will be the Prime Minister if the Party wins the poll. The RSP move suffered a setback in its initial plan as Kulman Ghising who founded the Nepal Ujyalo Party backtracked , and stepped away from the RSP fold.

While the Election Commission and the government authorities keep reiterating that elections will be held on time, the internal confabulation at the key level of the government indicate the government is not very sure about sticking to the poll date.  On Thursday, Oli met Karki One-on-One first time after she replaced him On September 12, at Baluwatar.  Oli , during his three hours plus meeting, put across the table some of his concerns about his own future.

He was keen to know whether his responsibility for the loss of life on September 9 in the state action would be ‘limited ‘ to ‘Moral’ or will be punished as guilty . He also wanted to know whether the prevailing law and order situation , and the state’s inability to recover 751 pieces of weapons that the criminals had snatched from the police, will pose any threat to the poll—voters and candidates.  P M Karki chose not to respond to the first question , but assured him that the state was fully prepared for free and fair poll.

Oli, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda—still in the post Gen Z  protest cocoon of fear–has not yet been able to move around and mix with the people freely as elections are less than two months away . The ‘Special convention’ of the NC at the initiative of Gagan Thapa seeking to keep Deuba from the electoral process ,  if succeeds may further weaken the Nepali congress and the much talked about poll alliance between the NC and the UML. Failure to secure an assurance from the Prime Minister that he will be ‘safe’ from any action or investigation in the state violence case , it will naturally be more in his interest to get rid of Karki as the P M and have the election deferred to another date.

Oli also suggested that the current government be made an all party cabinet under her leadership. But subsequent interactions that the Prime Minister had with constitutional experts indicates that she is keen to hold elections on time , but certainly not confident enough.

‘What will be my status if elections are not held on time’? was one of her concerns she shared with the experts. Opinions are divided, but many believe she has no life as PM if she fails to meet the current deadline.

Deuba’s  crisis , and possibility of his having to surrender equal , if not more share, to the Gagan Thapa group in deciding candidates for the Elections , will also be weakening Oli’s whatever residual clout since his and Deuba’s neck are tied together.

Former King Gyanendra Shah’s call to the political parties to give a  chance to the national consensus to decide issues like restoration of Monarchy , and indirect message to the Nepal Army that Political parties , in the past two decades, have pushed the country to the brink of failure, is something difficult for the government and the parties to brush aside. Nepal’s regular elections in the  past has shown while  it can not be dispensed with, it is not the solution to every problem and the crisis that the country faces.  In fact, Shah stands taller , wiser,  louder and more appealing today  than the political parties and leaders together now. National reconciliation or consensus requires that  the parties which have ruled and failed miserably in the past two decades must heed to it.