Who won and who lost in the most expensive 12-day iran-israel war of the year?

Iran and Israel recently engaged in a conflict that lasted 12 days, causing fear and uncertainty worldwide. The fighting, one of the most expensive in modern history, has temporarily halted with a ceasefire, but both nations claim victory, leaving the question of who truly bore the heavier cost open to discussion.

The 12-day confrontation has had severe economic repercussions, showcasing just how costly and destructive modern warfare can be. Advanced modern weapons, once speculated to threaten human civilization, proved their capacity for devastation during this conflict. The immediate economic toll of the war is now unfolding, with reports suggesting that both countries are beginning to assess the high financial and infrastructural damage, which reportedly amounts to billions of dollars.

Iran appears to be the hardest hit by the war. The nation has not only suffered considerable human losses, with the death of key military and scientific leaders, but its economy, already strained by decades of Western sanctions, is now even more vulnerable. Reports suggest that Iran’s GDP might have shrunk by approximately 6 to 9 percent due to the conflict. Defense analyst Kriag highlighted that the total economic loss might reach between 24 and 35 billion USD. Additionally, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israeli and American attacks presents a significant setback, prolonged by damages to its vital oil export infrastructure.

In Israel, a Bloomberg report estimates that Iranian missile strikes caused over 3 billion USD in damages, including repair costs for physical infrastructure and compensation for local businesses. Israeli Tax Authority Director Shay Aharonovich described it as the biggest challenge Israel has faced, with damage levels previously unheard of. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich indicated the total war expense could reach 12 billion USD, although Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron suggested it might be half this amount. In response, the Israeli government is considering measures such as budget cuts, tax increases, and taking on more debt to manage the rising deficit, potentially raising its public debt to over 75% of GDP.

Against this backdrop, the Israeli government has requested 857 million USD in emergency defense funds while proposing cuts totaling 200 million USD in critical sectors such as health, education, and social services, sparking public backlash. Controversially, travel restrictions on Jewish citizens have also been introduced, viewed by some as an attempt to prevent population and capital flight.

The United States also became involved in the conflict, launching “Operation Midnight Hammer” targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, reportedly costing the U.S. between 1 and 2 billion USD. This operation involved 125 fighter jets and numerous Tomahawk missiles and bunker-busting bombs aimed at key Iranian nuclear sites like Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Although the fighting has ceased for now, the full economic, strategic, and political costs of the conflict remain unclear. What is evident is that the war has inflicted deep wounds on both Iran and Israel’s economies. The already struggling Iranian economy now faces further turmoil due to disrupted oil exports and shattered nuclear infrastructure. Meanwhile, Israel prepares for one of the most expensive post-war reconstruction endeavors ever, with the government’s austerity measures facing widespread domestic opposition.

This brief but fierce conflict has not only accounted for a staggering financial outlay but also significantly disrupted the balance of power and security dynamics in the Middle East. Initial estimations place the combined war costs for Iran, Israel, and the U.S. at over 40 billion USD.