Escapism and lust for power

In early March, when Maoist Centre and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist came together in the government coalition, driving Nepali Congress out of it, it was seen as yet another ‘intelligent game’ by K P Oli, in pursuit of his power politics.

Towards the end of June, after series of direct talks and through emissaries between Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba the parties decided to come together to form a durable government. Oli easily pulled the carpet from beneath Prachanda’s feet. Oli’s political acrobat came a week after the UML supported the annual budget, and programmes and policies. Ethics has become an alien object or subject in Nepali politics, but UML surpassed all previous records.

Secondly, Nepal’s political leaders are visibly answerable to the external forces, and not to their voters or citizens. This will keep happening so long as Nepal’s internal politics comes back under full control of Nepali citizens. That will happen only after this system–a product of externally brokered peace deal, and in Krishna Prasad Bhattarai’s words–‘imported agenda’ – remains in place.

Nepali Congress and Maoists had formed a pre-poll alliance in 2022. Nepali Congress with Maoists by its side and UML were bitter foes campaigning against each other then. The ‘midnight equation’, formally announced at Shital Niwas this time, discredits the President of the Republic for allowing his office to be used for partisan politics. The decision of the two biggest parties to control power reduces the opposition to a much insignificant and weak entity in parliament. The public perception backed by fact and circumstances of the power capture shows it is meant to protect top leaders in the government from any investigation into corruption cases they are involved in. Rabi Lamichhane was perhaps politically naive and blind in trusting that Oli taking him into his wings and giving a ‘clean chit’ in the cooperative scam was purely tactical. In fact, in building a road to power alliance in March with Prachanda, and then creating a situation to head the government ditching Prachanda in four months, Lamichhane proved to be the most successful ladder for the UML Chief.

As part of the deal, Oli swung into action, collected signatures of the UML parliamentarians withdrawing support from the government first, and entered into another agreement with Deuba past mid night at President’s secretariat, to form a coalition government, with rotating leadership for equal period, with Oli to be the PM during the first 22 months of the current tenure of parliament.

It was the hollow threat or muscle flexing by Lamichhane as the Home Minister that he would ‘open files’ of corruption against top leaders that brought in haste Deuba and Oli together, nothing would have prevented Lamichhane doing what he wanted. In fact, he would actually become a Hero in the eyes of the people. But he chose to follow the Lokman Singh Karki model. If Karki, instead of boasting in presence of some people including UML leader Bishnu Poudel that top Congress and Communist leaders will be in jail tomorrow in corruption cases, he would not have been suspended the same night through a faulty process of impeachment.

Top leaders then knew they were corrupt and there were solid grounds for their investigation, the predicament of the two top leaders who will be in the government soon after July 12 was no different this time. As part of the deal, Oli swung into action, collected signatures of the UML parliamentarians withdrawing support from the government first, and entered into another agreement with Deuba past mid night at President’s secretariat, to form a coalition government, with rotating leadership for equal period, with Oli to be the PM during the first 22 months of the current tenure of parliament.

Lamichhane only turned out to be an empty vessel ‘sounding too much.’ But what to expect of the new government that will have a comfortable majority in Parliament? Of course, the first thing will be to put a lid on corruption cases involving top political leaders of major parties, especially in the ruling coalition. That will also lead to protecting those guilty of cooperative corruption since sizeable numbers are more or less controlled by parties including the one heading the government.

Country’s economy is in shambles and there are fears about Nepal being a defaulter as it is not in a position to pay interest and instalments of loans borrowed from international agencies. How Oli pursues his diplomacy with India, especially on border dispute and the outstanding EPG issue with India, and on Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] with China besides bringing Pokhara and Bhairahawa International airports under operation are his immediate challenges. Oli has acerbic tongue, enjoys humiliating or ridiculing his rivals and critiques, but that will only shorten his life in power. And he also has to be more careful about the likely developments within his own Party, especially when former President Bidhya Bhandari becomes more active and visible in the UML.

Deuba may have enough patience to wait for his turn to head the government, but his predicament within his own Party may not be very different from Oli’s. But it will be far easier to run or head a government when people do not expect much, and the opposition is weak and discredited.