UN warns of hotter, riskier years with potential new temperature records

The United Nations has warned that the next five years could be hotter, riskier, and set new temperature records globally. The UN’s weather and climate body has indicated a strong likelihood that the global average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will remain at or near the current record levels.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 75% chance that the five-year average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900. This suggests that the global climate crisis is deepening, according to the organization.

All of the 11 hottest years on record have occurred since 2015. The WMO predicts that this trend will continue, and it may be necessary to declare a new “hottest year” before 2031.

As this report is released, Western Europe is experiencing unusual heat. Temperature records for May have been broken in the UK and France, and various regions of Western Europe are under the influence of a high-temperature system known as a “heat dome.”

The WMO has clarified that there is a strong possibility that the global average temperature will remain at record levels or close to them over the next five years. According to the organization, there is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.

Meanwhile, the climate cycle linked to the ‘El Niño’ effect is expected to further increase temperatures. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO’s ‘Global Annual-to-Decadal Update,’ has forecasted the development of El Niño by the end of 2026. According to him, its impact could further increase the likelihood of 2027 becoming another record-breaking hot year.

The previous El Niño event contributed to making 2023 the second hottest year on record, and the temperature in 2024 rose 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

El Niño is a natural climate process that increases the surface temperature of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its impact causes significant changes in wind patterns, weather conditions, and rainfall patterns worldwide. This cycle typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set a goal to limit global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, ideally keeping it below 1.5 degrees Celsius. These targets are based on the average temperature from 1850–1900, before large-scale burning of coal, oil, and gas began. Carbon dioxide emissions from these fossil fuels are considered the main cause of climate change.

The WMO’s updated report estimates that the annual global average temperature near the surface from 2026 to 2030 will be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

The organization states that there is a 91% chance that the global average temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level in at least one year between 2026 and 2030. Additionally, there is a 75% chance that the entire five-year average will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold.

However, the WMO has indicated that the likelihood of any single year within the next five years exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline is extremely low, with less than a 1% chance.

The report also warns that temperature increases in the Arctic will be much more rapid than the global average. It is estimated that during the next five northern hemisphere winters (November to March), the Arctic’s temperature will be about 2.8 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991–2020 average, more than three times the global average temperature increase for the same period.

The WMO has warned that the 1.5-degree limit could be breached more frequently in the coming years. However, since the 1.5 and 2-degree limits mentioned in the Paris Agreement relate to long-term averages, typically over 20 years, temporarily exceeding these limits does not mean that the long-term goals are entirely out of reach, the organization clarified.

Last year was also one of the three hottest years on record. The global average temperature near the surface was estimated to be about 1.43 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 baseline.

This report, prepared by the UK’s national weather service and the WMO’s annual to decadal climate prediction center, includes forecasts from 13 different institutions.

The report also indicates that from 2026 to 2030, there could be significant regional variations in rainfall patterns from May to September. It suggests that the Sahel region, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia could experience above-normal rainfall, while the Amazon region is expected to remain unusually dry.