The Electoral Politics of Nepal: Opening the Cusp of a New Chapter

Nepal’s adoption of a pluralist model of parliamentary democracy has made its political sphere highly fluid. This fluidity was characterized by its mixed electoral system that combines direct election of representatives from geography and proportional election of political parties’ representatives.  The nation’s mid-term parliamentary elections of March 5 remained relatively peaceful. The election outcomes broke a long cycle of wobbly coalition governments by giving the reformist Rastriya Swotantra Party (RSP) landslide victory to form the government under its charismatic leader Balendra Shah.

It scored 182 parliamentary two seats short of  two-third majority  necessary to amend the constitution.   Post-election debate is surging on several areas: restoring the institutional integrity of the state, constitutional amendments, renewal of productive economy, anti-corrupt good governance, realistic orientation of foreign policy and an improvement in the delivery of public goods and services. Nepalis this time peacefully exercised their civic rights to vote, engaged in election campaigns, asked questions to candidates and harnessed strong political awareness to revitalize the democratic prospects. Free, fair, credible and peaceful elections are an index of a mature democracy. The election outcome is expected to provide stable leadership for an exit from its history of lingering political transition where no government completed its full tenure. It has unveiled an opportunity to build trust in public institutions and earn new political legitimacy to rule not only by numerical majority but also by rational performance. This election has unfolded a number of political trends:

First, it is the first mid-term parliamentary election after Generation Z revolt of September 8-9, 2025for media freedom, anti-corrupt good governance and intergenerational justice.

About 77 youths were killed during the revolt. It forced Prime Minister K. P.Oli to resign and ease the formation of a caretaker government under Prime Minister Sushila Karki, former chief justice of the Supreme Court with the mandate to hold parliamentary elections within six- month and probe into the killings of youth and reckless ruin of public and private properties. President Ram Chandra Poudel and Nepal Army Chief Ashok Raj Sigdel facilitated the transition process though motives of both were different—the former was interested in the protection of the constitution while the latter was interested in the stability of state structures. Both sought the legitimacy of governance through fresh election.

The election campaign of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) had projected the establishment composed of Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, CPN and Madhes-based parties into negative light, played with their contradictions, mobilized the families of victims for justice, youth bulge, social media platform and diasporas aspiring for a substantive change in the political landscape. Its thumping election victory has established it as a dominant alternative democratic party and also stoked soaring expectations of people. It has provided a space to make hard choices on many institutional and policy issues the previous establishment had simply ignored. The critical questions are: will the new government be competent to resolve the nation’s myriad of institutional and policy challenges and chart the nation’s stable democratic future by enduring its full tenure? Can it generate effective output legitimacy, clean the piling of social, economic and political malaises and generate a hope of Nepalis for a better life, liberty and justice?  Can it create common ground for political stability or as usual practice the politics of negation of rivals, polarize politics and ignite an endless cycle of conflict? Leadership and institutional performance to respond to popular expectation is vital to shape the nation’s stable political trajectory.

Second, the elections marked the mushroom growth of parties for electoral contestation. The Election Commission (EC) has unveiled that 137 political parties are registered with it to race for 275 seats (165 from direct election and 110 from PR category). In the direct election out of 3,406 candidates, women’s share is only 395 (11.34 percent) despite the constitutionally binding  33 percent. It is expected to be balanced through a proportion list. Political parties boom can be attributed to the nation’s social diversity of 125 ethnic and caste groups and asymmetric representation of social classes in the mainstream political parties—Nepali Congress (NC), Communist Party of Nepal Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), CPN, Rastirya Prajatatra Party (RPP) and Madhesh-based parties. The GEN Z revolt arose out of an aversion to the practice of corruption, nepotism and lack of inner party democracy. It demanded generational justice. Out of the total, 25 political parties have emerged after the Generation Z revolt. In a population of 30 million of the nation total voters stand 188, 03, 698 while total candidates 3,406. The size of new voters has increased to 834,000.  Nepali electoral politics presents a disparity as youth voters of 18 to 40 years represent 52 percent while their candidature showed only 31 percent.

 Fifty percent of candidates come from the age group between 41 to 60 years of age while those above constitute 12 percent. The election outcome, however, unveils that youth representation has spiked to 59 members of parliament while those of senior generation declined to 13 members. The upward swing of youth representation is sure to spark debate for democratization in the internal life of political parties.

Third, Nepali voters have endorsed social and generational representation in political power, rejected careerist old leaders, ideological canons or even dynastic succession. They discarded the regime of syndicate, patronage, hereditary elements, family-friendly politics and centralization of power with impunity. The electoral outcomes indicate that tribal, regional and ethnic formation of parties also suffered unexpected fortunes. The victory of RSP transcends the old parties’ ethnic, regional, caste, gender and communal identity politics for common national identity of Nepalis. The bridging of entrenched faultlies provides an opportunity to consolidate Nepali state and enable its institutions to perform basic state functions. The Party Act stipulates that a political party must secure at least one seat under the first-past-the-post system and 3 percent vote share under proportional representation to gain the status of national parties and get a proportional representation seat.  This ceiling has reduced the number of national parties into six. RSP emerged as dominant party with 182 parliamentary seats, followed by NC 38, CPN-UML25, NCP 17, Shram Sanskriti Party, a party of labor and culture7,  Rastriya Prajaantra Party (RPP)5 and independent I seat in a consecutive order and consigned the opposition in a less vital position to keep democratic dynamic. Alienation of left parties from the class-based politics is marked by their declining vote.  Many of the senior generation of leaders facing scams, corruption, criminal charges and stigma of authoritarianism were trounced in the elections except CPN Co-coordinator Puspa Kamal Dahal, Prachanda who strongly backed GEN-Z revolt and hopes to collaborate with RSP for amending the constitution. The largely offensive electoral campaigns of RSP put the old parties on the defensive as social media often discredited their leaders. It left many earlier national parties to crawl with survival strategies waiting for opportune time to rebound. Infighting also consumed the political energy of the establishment parties.

Fourth, the revolt of GEN-Z has inspired young leaders of old parties to exert pressure on top patriarchs of the party to step down,  challenged the notion of leader-for-life based on transactional style and adapted to the ferment of historical change of political landscape. In NC Gagan Kumar Thapa faction had organized a special convention of the party and replaced Sher B. Deuba as party president and projected himself  as prime ministerial candidate of reformed NC.

It bore little impact on CPN and Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist-Leninist. K. P Oli continued sidelined his critics and  rivals and acted more like a  patriarch after his critics and rivals were sidelined from the party. In the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) youth constituted the bulk of candidature. It had utilized the strength of critical mass and media platforms and connected to the mass of electorates even in rural areas. The entry of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah to RSP , his projection as Prime Ministerial candidate and his teaming up with RSP President Rabi Lamichhane created a visible wave  across  the country,

Balen contested and defeated Oli, his bet noire  from Jhapa.  The outcomes reveal that the RSP has replaced the traditional bases of the establishment. Old parties could not anticipate the depth of boiling frustration of people against their misrule and shifting attachment of voters from the mother parties.  This shows that political education and communication of old parties with the people was feeble, feverish and febrile.

Similarly, their top-down style of nominating candidates for elections without consulting the local committees proved fatal for them.  The substantive decline of the clout of left space indicates a rightward shift in politics. Still, the vigor of class-based politics would not die down. It would endure unless the policy of distributive justice mediates its interest, removes the structural context of poverty and discrimination and disfigures the new state of class consciousness. The digital and economic divide would continue to make it a determining voter’s behavior even if leaders indulge in class compromise.

Fifth, each old political parties ran into the risk of polarization between old and new generation and between the  rural and urban population, on the other,  not grasping the space of middle path. The positive outcome of GEN Z revolt is that most parties have sought to give increased space to  the youth leaders but not adequately from women, Dalits and micro minorities as required by electoral law and party constitution to make parliament the political mosaic of the nation of unity in diversity.

The future policy tasks of election are: maximization of people’s participation and support, minimization of alienation and control of anomie that spoils the election-friendly environment. Each political party showed its commitments to reform the constitution, control corruption, set good governance and seek qualitative transformation of Nepali politics. The government’s extension of the tenure of former justice Gauri Bahadur Karki led Commission on the inquiry of killing of youths for fear of disruption of conducive atmosphere for election.  Similarly, the Supreme Court has also delayed the verdict on the case filed for the restoration of parliament to avoid unforeseen consequences. Debate about reforms in judiciary and administration is  raging full of vitality.

Security Environment: The security environment in the nation remained largely peaceful except some scattered events of clash of political cadres. The government has formed an integrated election security team coordinating with all security agencies –Nepal Army, Armed Police Force, Nepal Police and National Investigation Departments to create an election-friendly environment. At the civilian level, a separate joint structure has been created in all 6,740 wards comprising political parties, civil society, media, private sectors and community leaders.  The security agencies have dispelled the fear of some leaders that unrecovered arms looted during the GEN-Z revolt and escape of over 4,000 criminals from jail might pose a risk and spoil the security environment.  Security agencies had identified 12 groups as potential disruptors of elections. On Democracy Day King Gynendra had ssued a statement for the unity of the nation expressing the need for a comprehensive dialogue of all stakeholders for an understanding before the election. They all deem electoral politics a side-show, something that only distracts the attention of leaders from main national issues.

Election Expenditure: The EC has stipulated that  each candidate can spend a minimum Rs2.5 million to Rs 3.3 million in the election. It  has also instructed candidates to channel all election related expenses  through banks and financial institutions, open separate accounts for contributions exceeding Rs. 25,000 and ensure expenditure within the set limit.

 It aims to reduce the influence of money in elections, increase transparency, shore up public trust and electoral integrity. Most candidates have not opened bank accounts for they know the election costs might exceed the limits and transparency of finance put them in trouble.  The previous election expenditure showed that on an average more than Rs 20 million was spent.  Candidates  have innocently revealed the increasing cost of winning elections. Unless codes become legally binding,  candidates hardly follow the ceiling rule. It might risk the monetization of politics. It stifles democratic competition on policies, ideologies and personalities.

Electoral Adjustment:  NC, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) all declined to accept CPN-UML invite for electoral alliance. The NCP coordinator Prachanda has combined 14 small political parties to augment his political leverage.  Obviously, electoral de-alignment of the establishment has affected its prospect.  As the electoral campaigns heightened , Prachanda aired the need to forge partnership against those responsible for the destruction of public and national properties during ‘youth revolt aligned with imperialist power’.  The binary mode of class politics has finally bid farewell in the elections enabling Nepali parties to become catch-all. All left parties stoke the fear of external forces to ignite populism and geopolitical penetration.

Code of Conduct and Inflated Promises: The EC had set 64-points directives to political parties and independent candidates prohibiting the use of force, threats, inducements or any actions that can harm social decency and disrupt public order. It has also forwarded strict rules for campaigning, financial management, voter’s decent conduct and civility. Still, candidates are trading mutual accusations with symbolic sarcasm and exposing each other’s flaws. Social media are full of scorns, cartoons of candidates, disinformation, burning of effigies of leaders, extortion of money and indictments against each other’s leaders beyond the capacity of EC and government to properly regulate. Similarly, the inclusivity of women and Dalits in the first-past-the post election remains skewed as parties require the election of 35 percent of women.  The EC cannot control the blatant circulation of hyperbolic promises to manipulate voters’ opinion as usual with no intention of fulfilling nor the illicit flow of money which is done in a clandestine way.

Digital media has altered the nature of campaigns and, therefore, their adherence to code of conduct becomes essential. There is a shift in campaign strategy as well from exclusive crowd demonstration to door to door campaign and listening to voters’ concerns. Another is public opinion survey and pool prediction in favor of certain candidates producing bandwagon effects on voting behavior. Media reported the use of children in political activities. NGOs, Human rights organizations and civil society have monitored the elections but hardly reveal who finances vote-buying behind the scene. Many electoral promises of parties reflect the repetition of the past such as constitutional amendment, retaining the migrant workers within the nation, improvement of health and education, infrastructural and energy development, transportation, youth entrepreneurship, creation of employment opportunities, digital economy, modernization of agriculture, drinking water, social security enhancement, land certificate to landless, corruption control, good governance, smooth service delivery, etc.

Party Defection: Major parties have witnessed party defection of leaders—NC, CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party, Communist Party of Nepal and Madhes-based parties etc. Those leaders not receiving tickets, facing discrimination and aspiring for social mobility are either apathetic, becoming independent candidates or joining rival parties to sabotage the prospects of official candidates. The defectors justify their acts blaming the arbitrary distribution of party tickets and lack of financial transparency.  In Nepal politics so far constituted an arena for privileges and a passport for social mobility, personality projection and increasing clout and leverages in decision making. The declining attachment of cadres, voters and leaders indicates their increasing de-ideologization, de-politicization and monetization.

Voters Education: The election outcomes show only about 60 percent of voters cast their ballots, showing lowest voter turnout after the political change of 1990. Voters of five polling centers of Darchula, Dang, Okhaladhunga and Dolakha districts boycotted the elections. Voters’ apathy and alienation arose out of their frustration with the leaders, misrule, not listening to their voice and ignoring their development aspirations.   The EC has conducted voter education programs on how to vote, precise stamping of ballot paper, election code and disinformation. It is expected to improve voter turnout and reduce invalid voting that stood over 5 percent following the historical pattern. But in no way it has encouraged rational voting for the selection of competent persons capable of representing people, formulating public policies, addressing the concerns of electorates and resolving national and local problems. Voters’ ignorance is revealed in the case of RSP candidate Kishori Shah who received three times more votes  than the winner of CPN despite annulment of his  candidature following bank fraud case.   What Nepal requires is regular civic education and its outreach across various regions, classes and generations. Civic competence of Nepali voters has moderately increased through the use of digital media but it is not a guarantee to evolve civic culture in the nation. This time even ordinary voters have asked questions about their candidates’ vision, their performance in the past, validity of their statements and even execution of unrealistic promises.

 Conclusion

Peaceful, fair and credible elections as a democratic exercise can be expected to shape the nation’s civic culture. The parliamentary election of Nepal has provided an opportunity for leaders and political parties to test their popularity, renew their links with the people, listen to their concerns and politicize them to generate their volunteerism, not only play in the shadow networks of power. Integrated security and modern communication have made the operation of elections in Nepal smooth. Nepali people have learned about various issues, ideologies, parties and leaders and exercised their constitutional duties of voting in the selection of leaders expecting that their representatives will ease their economic pains head on. The outcome of the election has demonstrated Nepalis know how to build civic competence, band together and make their leaders accountable to their not only desirable generational transformation but also mandate for national prosperity. The landslide victory of RSP is beyond the imagination of its competitor parties and critics  but the challenges that lie ahead for  the government are also stupendous.

The challenge for new leadership of RSP is how to minimize extreme partisanship in the functionality of public institutions and manage the domination of House of Representatives by RSP and National Assembly by old parties for the operation of democratic polity and build an interface with all the state-bearing institutions facing the erosion of authority, integrity and mandate. The influence of growing populism might divert them from the real issues, therefore, mutual conversation about the virtues of apt laws, public policies, leadership accountability and provision and production of public goods are vital after the elections.  The resounding victory of RSP and the formation of its government are expected to make public policies based on its commitments to the sovereignty of people ensuring their livelihood and dignity and reviving real economy—agriculture, industry, hydro and IT and creating opportunity for job, health and economy at home. It can open the possibilities for constitutional and structural change, avert the frequent regime-change strategy and  set a balanced foreign policy on the foot of national interest rooted in nonalignment, not ideological affinity that upsets geopolitical balance. The new leadership has also to control the backstage maneuvering of deep state and interest groups. It can deploy surplus in productive investments, hone the nation’s adaptability and acceptability in the changing geopolitical landscape, enable ordinary Nepalis to feel the pulse of opening the cusp of a new chapter in their life and keep the oldest aspiration of national independence.